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CBO Says 14 Million People to Lose Healthcare by 2018 Under Trumpcare

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The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued its score for President Donald Trump’s healthcare plan. They estimate that the American Healthcare Act or Trumpcare will result in at least 14 million people losing their health coverage by 2o18. Furthermore, that number should grow to 24 million uninsured people by 2026.

UNITED STATES - MARCH 9: Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, R-Wis., conducts a presentation in the House studio of the American Health Care Act, the GOP's plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, March 9, 2017. CBO

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It’s worse than expected.

While everyone, including the White House, expected the CBO estimates would not be favorable for the president, the outlook was more pessimistic than anyone predicted. They had already put out several “prebuttals” to the report. Mick Mulvaney, head of the Office of Management and Budget took to the Sunday shows this week to preemptively dismiss the report. He said, “If the CBO was right about Obamacare to begin with, there’d be 8 million more people on Obamacare today than there actually are. So, I love the folks at the CBO, they work really hard. They do. Sometimes we ask them to do stuff that they’re not capable of doing.”

The veracity of that statement was called into question by PolitiFact, who rated the statement as “half true.”

The main reason so many people will lose their health insurance by 2016 is the way the plan deals with Medicaid.  The Medicaid expansion, implemented by Obamacare, is set to be phased out by 2020. At the same time, the bill puts caps on the amount of money the federal government can spend on the health care program for poor Americans.

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Another reason for the drop in coverage is the elimination of the mandate that individuals buy a plan. This will mean fewer younger and healthier people will choose to sign up for health coverage. Because of this drop in healthy subscribers, the CBO says that policy rates will go up by 15 percent in 2018 and 20 percent in 2020.’

The plan does bring with it some deficit reduction. Between 2017 and 2026, this would reduce the deficit by about $337 billion. This savings comes from the end of the Medicaid expansion and the lower tax credits that individuals would get to help them buy their own insurance policies.

tom cotton arkansas healthcare CBO

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The real action will be in the U.S. Senate.

Many people think that the bill, as written, will pass the House of Representatives. Two committees have already passed it. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) has said he hopes to have in on the floor by the end of the month. It faces a much harder struggle in the Senate, where it needs 60 votes to pass. Not only are Democrats sure to vote against the bill but at least a few GOP senators have said they do not like it. One of Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR). He warned House republicans to not vote for the bill. He said, “I’m afraid that if they vote for this bill, they’re going to put the House majority at risk next year.”

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